[SMM Survey Daily Brief] 20251230

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is offered at 1,600 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is offered at 1,480 yuan/mt.

Raw material fundamentals, approaching year-end, some mines are appropriately controlling production, and supply remains tight. Downstream finished steel end-user sales are poor, market confidence is weakening, wait-and-see sentiment is heavy, coking coal transactions overall are performing moderately, online auctions are seeing more transactions at lower prices, pre-holiday coking coal prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,790 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,650 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,440 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,350 yuan/mt.

Supply side, most coke enterprises are operating at a loss, but within an acceptable range, production enthusiasm is moderate, coke production has only slightly declined. Demand side, steel mill profit margins have slightly recovered, the phenomenon of controlling coke arrivals has decreased somewhat, but end-user finished steel demand lacks improvement, and pre-holiday steel mill hot metal production is still expected to decline, steel mills are mainly purchasing coke as needed. In summary, the recent steel market has weakened, steel mills still have the intention to suppress coke prices, expectations for the implementation of the fourth round of coke price cuts have strengthened, the short-term coke market is expected to be in the doldrums.[SMM Steel]